San Diego Politics Blog

Brian Bilbray seems to have rankled a number of conservative Republicans.

First there were those anti-Bilbray attack pieces by the California Republican Assembly organization.  Abramoff and Metabolife deaths and all that.

Then a former right-wing San Diego assemblyman named Steve Baldwin said he didn’t much like Bilbray because Bilbray was a liberal Republican who supported a Democrat over Republican Baldwin in a race for a state legislative seat.

At first Bilbray denied that charge, but then later told Roger Hedgecock that in fact he did support a Democrat over Baldwin because it was in San Diego’s best interests.

Now Flash Report blog honcho, Jon Fleischman, has written a blog entry that is ruthless against Bilbray.  His message:  vote for any Republican so long as it isn’t Brian Bilbray.

Here’s what Fleischman has to say.

Kaloogian advocate Jonathan Krive of the right-wing Conservative High School Conservative group wrote to this blog again today with a bit of a boast.

Krive claims that Kaloogian supporters canvassed churchgoers in the 50th yesterday and distributed tens of thousands of pro-life fliers.  He says Kaloogian’s backers had "the church community to ourselves, none of the other candidates bothered to ask the Christian community for their vote.  Not Roach.  Not Morrow."

I’ve not heard anything from Eric Roach’s supporters about their efforts yesterday but I would imagine they are also working very hard to line up support from Mormon’s since Roach himself is Mormon.  That might also explain why Roach’s campaign did not join Mr. Krive and the Kaloogian campaign at the Christian churches yesterday.

If representatives from Morrow or Roach or Bilbray campaign have information to contradict Mr. Krive’s claims please speak up.  The Christian Right has played a major impact on certain San Diego elections, and it will be interesting to see if they turn out en masse for any one particular candidate.

Barry Jantz has a great entry on the race for Congress and his mentions of this blog.

Barry, thanks for your efforts.  Your check is "in the mail."

Also he wants people to post their predictions on the top candidates and how they finish in this race.  So, armchair political experts, make your predictions now!

Read it all here.

The Words Have Power blog cites a Washington Post story on the 50th including the hopes by national Democratic Party leaders to secure a surprising victory tomorrow.

The WHP blogger was tooling around the district and senses a surge for Busby.  This includes a prediction that Busby will win outright with 52% of the vote.

Read more here.

Dani Dodge writes about the mudslinging in the battle for the 50th by the major candidates.

Both public and private polls consistently have shown Democrat Busby well ahead of the pack of 14 Republicans, who are splitting the GOP vote. She is trailed by Roach and Bilbray, with Republican former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian within striking distance in some polls. The other major Republican candidates include state Sen. Bill Morrow, business owner Alan Uke, businessman Bill Hauf and former Del Mar Mayor Richard Earnest.

Most political experts agree a special election like this is hard to gauge by polling because the race will come down to who shows up at the polls tomorrow – and that is unpredictable.

Along with the polls, negative ads have identified the likely leaders.

Dani’s written some great stories about this election, but this one seems to overdramatize the "mudslinging."

When you consider how much money these candidates have spent in the election you’d think some of them would be sinking to some nasty attacks.

Most of the mailers and tv ads have been relatively tame compared to other elections.  Where is the "Willie Horton" ad of this campaign?  There hasn’t been one.

Most of the money the candidates have spent has been on discussing why their experience (or outsider status) or views on the issues best qualifies them to represent the people of San Diego County.

National Journal Hotline dishes on the race for the 50th today.

Special elections are always unpredictable (the OH 02 special comes to mind), but one thing’s for sure: GOPers need to hold this safe seat, or risk even bigger problems down the road.

…

Meanwhile, the NRCC began airing an attack ad questioning Busby’s ethics — the first high-profile shot at her. The ad buy suggests that the NRCC is concerned that Busby has a shot at winning the seat outright with 50% — they predict she’ll get at least 43 percent.

The blurb discusses Busby, Roach, Bilbray and Kaloogian (who is "Harold" Kaloogian by the way?).  They note that Bilbray and Kaloogian may decide to advance to the June primary election even if they are not the top GOPer in tomorrow’s special election.

Read more here.