The Chris Young Factor
Alot of attention has been focused on 2 things in the campaign for the 50th.
1) The Bilbray-Busby back and forth bashing and how the campaign will play out as the two muddy each other up.
2) The "will he or won’t he run" questions facing Eric Roach.
But what may also emerge as an interesting factor in this race will be the role Democrat Chris Young might play.
Unlike the 18-candidate herd that stampeded through the precincts of the 50th on April 11th, on June 6th there will only be 1 or 2 serious Republican candidates, Francine Busby as the leading Democrat and then the questionmark candidate, Chris Young.
If Bilbray hits Busby enough, can Young find a niche with local Democrats? Can Young attract the votes of disaffected Republicans if Busby seriously wounds Bilbray, but Roach decides NOT to run on June 6th?
Or will Young be forever marginalized by the establishment of the Democrat Party?
On her campaign website Chris Young says she is "left of the neocons" but also "right of the liberals"
The question: will Young make a serious effort to raise the money to have a voice in this campaign, or will she merely be a protest vote limited to issuing public statements and appearing in rare interviews with the local media?
Not likely. Unlike Eric Roach, Chris Young wasn’t embraced by anyone, really, and came nowhere close to winning. At best, she’ll make a decent showing in the primary. And that would mean around 15-20%. At those numbers, she won’t take down Busby. So Busby can ignore Young in the primary and be fine.
Moreover, the whole centrist Dem thing isn’t working right now. Look at Vargas. What does he really bring to the table that Filner doesn’t? A willingness to work with an increasingly unpopular President and Republican Congress; that doesn’t make Democrats or Independents exactly swoon. Right now, the winning coaltion is comprised of Democrats, Independents and disaffected Republicans, all of whom dislike the current state of government. Centrist DINO’s and RINO’s are not, by nature, going to shake things up, and that’s what the voters want right now.
The Roach factor, which is looking increasingly likely, is the real deal. In the primary look at these numbers on the Rep side:
Bilbray: 15.27%
Roach: 14.5%
Kaloogian: 7.44%
Morrow: 5.37%
Uke: 3.99%
And so on. Of the Republicans running, only Bilbray and Uke represented the moderate, centrist side of the Republican Party. That’s a total of 19% for Moderates. Everyone else was one version or another of Conservative, for a total of around 31% of the vote. So in a primary without Kaloogian, Morrow and everyone else, Roach kills Bilbray. Knowing this, Bilbray is going to spend as much time and money on the primary as he does on the run-off.
Worst of all, the inclination is to move to the center during a general/run-off. And Bilbray needs to do this to gather up the independent vote. But if he moves too far to the left, the primary challenge grows. On the Dem side, Busby can move to the right without challenge because she’s moving into Young’s territory. If anything, a respectable challenge by Young improves Busby’s chances by moving her further to the right than she intends.
Comment by Jim — April 27, 2006 @ 6:59 pm
I enjoyed your analysis, Jim. Thanks!
Comment by Administrator — April 27, 2006 @ 7:21 pm
As a conservative Republican, I hope Roach stays in. The numbers make sense, but just for us. I think the average voter may not be able to process “Bilbray in the special, Roach for the primary.”
However, even though Chris Young might not be able to win, I would prefer her to Busby or even Bilbray, and might vote for her or not bother showing up at all. I think Bilbray has a better chance in the special if Roach stays in because conservatives might not otherwise have a reason to get out to the polls.
Voters on the right and left extremes may get more fired up about their polarized candidates than Young’s moderate supporters, but the polarized candidates get nothing done because they are more worried about keeping/getting back power in DC than spending their time solving the nation’s real problems.
Comment by JP in RSF — May 1, 2006 @ 3:03 am
I am so confused.
So, you are a conservative Republican who really likes Roach, but you might vote for a Democrat who by your own admission can’t win.
You aren’t an “average voter” in that you are able to “process” things better (and you bother to come read this site, and comment), but you might throw away your sacred opportunity and duty to vote and “not bother showing up at all”?
Given that in both cases, the conclusion is basically the opposite of the previous evidence, I think you’re just feigning interest in Young as some kind of strategy maneuver.
Comment by yeah right — May 1, 2006 @ 3:47 am
Tom McClintock, Tony Strickland (on the positive side), and a proposed state government takeover of statewide preschool education (on the negative side — just think, the folks that run the DMV and the public schools would take over control of your church or neighborhood preschool too!): If they don’t motivate true conservatives to turn out, I don’t think anything in CD 50 is going to do so, so let’s give the “Billbray doesn’t motivate me” point a rest.
And the only thing Chris Young influences in this race is the number of comments posted to SD Politics. Busby is like H.Clinton — it doesn’t matter how conservative she sounds to get elected, the MoveOn types know she’s one of them and they will turn our and support her.
So here’s the real question: are conservatives willing to let Busby win the seat for 6 months to ensure a conservative is elected in November? It’s a tough question.
Comment by the other DC guy — May 1, 2006 @ 7:23 am
Hey JP, it is impossible to vote for Roach AND Young. They are in separate primaries. If you are an R you can only vote for one of the R’s. If you have a desire to vote for Young, you beter change your reg. to Dem ASAP! (not that I would ever advocate that
)
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 1, 2006 @ 7:59 pm
Actually, the Move-On types back Busby, not Young. And you can’t vote for both Roach and Young unless you have access to both the Democratic and Republican primary ballot, which is generally considered voter fraud.
Comment by Jim — May 1, 2006 @ 8:45 pm
Good points all. In some cases it is worth throwing a vote away if you don’t believe either potential winner can really make a difference. In that case you are at least voting your conscience for someone you believe would have made a difference. I am not feigning interest in Young as a strategy maneuver, just sugggesting that she actually might be more conservative than Bilbray in many respects. But you are right about changing parties to vote. Too much hassle, even for a symbolic throw away vote. I don’t think most Republicans would be willing to have a dem in for 6 months to risk an incumbent battle in Nov. This could only happen if Roach wins anyway. A Busby Bilbray matchup in Nov would end the same way if she were the incumbent. But there is definitely talk in my conservative circles to vote in the special for Busby. Once Bilbray is defeated again by a liberal female dem, 2.5 years from now she could be easily taken down by a stronger conservative. So I guess if the vote were today I would vote Busby for the special and Roach for the primary. Sorry Chris.
John P.
Comment by JP in RSF — May 2, 2006 @ 3:08 am
Hey, JP, any idea why Roach’s website is offline?
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 2, 2006 @ 5:25 pm
I just pulled it up and it seemed to work for me, but I hadn’t been on there for a couple of weeks so I don’t know if it was down. I heard he is making another trip to DC, don’t know why, but time is short. If he doesn’t say one way or the other within a week, the decision will have been made by default.
Comment by JP in RSF — May 3, 2006 @ 5:08 am
Why not take another trip to DC, when you have your own plane. Heck, why not head over every other day, or just for lunch, or whatever. He don’t need to stinkin’ reason!
Comment by yeah right — May 3, 2006 @ 7:22 am
little typo…’to stinkin’ –> ‘no stinkin’
Comment by yeah right — May 3, 2006 @ 7:28 am
JP — That’s pretty interesting. I wonder if anyone in the progressive camp is taking a page from your book and planning to vote for Busby in the runoff and Bilbray in the primary.
Comment by Nik — May 3, 2006 @ 3:34 pm
It is indeed going to be interesting to see what kind of “factor” Young turns out to be. If her new and evolving website is any indication, I don’t think she’s backing down for the regular June primary. Gossip has it that she is actively seeking financial support from those who believed that Busby’s only longshot chance was April 11th and it’s over. She seems qualified and at least according to Roger Hedgecock’s ravings she seems qualified. Very interesting.
Comment by Interesting — May 3, 2006 @ 4:44 pm
Nik,
Only a “progressive” Republican or a “Decline to State” voter could vote for Bilbray in the primary — the primary is a closed primary (but DtS voters can ask for and vote a Republican ballot).
Sorry “Interesting,” but Young’s not going anywhere — 1.32% is still only 1.32%. In the primary, she could increase her support ten-fold and Busby would still beat her by almost 3 to 1.
Let me put it another way: among votes cast April 11th for Democratic candidates, Young took 2.9% and Busby took 97.1%.
So the Bilbray supporters looking for Young to help their guy out in June should look for a more realistic way of helping Bilbray (perhaps endorsements and ground troops from Morrow and Plescia?).
Comment by the other DC guy — May 3, 2006 @ 11:28 pm
DC, it still could be interesting. I checked the FEC listings. To put it in some perspective, Young got 2.9% of the total Democratic vote, but spent only approximately 12K or .008% of what Busby did in advertising. If Young should come up with any kind of money for media saturation, then it could still be interesting since a little less than half of the Democrats failed to vote on the 11th.
Also, DC, if one reads between the lines of your last paragraph, one might think you believe there are those in the Bilbray camp who think Young would be willing to help out Bilbray. Any truth to this? Or am I reading too much into it? Do tell.
Finally, beyond the Minute Men, do you really think Morrow would support the likes of Bilbray?
Comment by Interesting — May 4, 2006 @ 2:02 am
Does Roach have his own plane? Can someone hook me up? I know DC pretty well, unless it has changed in the last 20 years. Maybe I can catch a ride.
I agree with Interesting. If someone handed her 1.3 million bucks I’d wager that she could get some serious votes. Roach proved a couple of things. First, you do need name recognition, either by being in the political game a long time or by spending a ton of dough. Second, you have to have a message/be likeable. Hauf and Uke proved that you can spend a lot of dough (over $1 million each), get the name recognition, and still not get any votes. At least Young managed 1.5% with a couple thousand bucks. Hauf required $1 million to get his 1.5%!
John P.
Comment by JP in RSF — May 4, 2006 @ 4:55 am
One problem: no one can “hand her $1.3 million bucks” thanks to campaign finance laws.
I don’t have any true insight into Bilbray’s camp actively wanting Young to hammer Busby, but I suspect that’s where all this interest is coming from - it’s certainly the only place where money is going to come from (after all, if she had any donors herself they would have donated in the primary).
Comment by the other DC guy — May 4, 2006 @ 5:59 am