New GOP Survey Has Busby Beating Bilbray 43%-37%
Good news for Busby, bad news for Bilbray.
A Republican-sponsored poll finds that the Democrat candidate is pulling ahead in this "safe" GOP seat.
Read more at the Flash Report here.
May 5, 2006
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You have to question the motives of those who conducted the poll. This was obviously paid for by someone who wants Roach to run. Therefore instilling as much fear into the GOP as possible is their motivation. Their failure to release the underlying data, and wording of the questions is also suspect. The fact that Busby’s own internal has her losing by two also raises serious doubts about the validity of this poll.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 5, 2006 @ 11:59 pm
Isn’t it too late for Roach to run at this point?
Aren’t the absentee ballots already being mailed out?
Comment by Administrator — May 6, 2006 @ 12:08 am
Absentee ballots don’t go out till mid-next week.
Doesn’t this have to be part of the Eric Roach announcement strategy? Roach now says he running to save the Republican party.
Wow - Bilbray can’t be happy.
Comment by gil — May 6, 2006 @ 12:16 am
They haven’t been mailed yet. I believe it is happening soon, though. According to the rabidly pro-roach mouthpiece Flash Report, Roach will be announcing in the next couple days. This poll, paid for by Bill Hauf (who attended the DC “fact-finding” mission that Roach and his Erstwhile groupie Jon Fleishman were on) is oddly coordinated with this announcement. It all seems pretty orchestrated to me. Check the comments section on the on-line version of CA News&Review (Flashreport
) for some interesting insight into this “push poll” (and no, I am not Dave Gilliard).
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 6, 2006 @ 12:16 am
Roach’s name is already on the Regular Republican June Primary ballot, along with the herd of other Repubs because the filing deadlines for the Special and Regular were just a week or so apart (weeks ago). All he has to do is say he’s in and start spending. Bilbray, Busby, King and Griffith are on the Special runoff ballot.
Comment by Interesting — May 6, 2006 @ 12:33 am
Didn’t the Roach campaign announce that there would be an announcement of Roach’s intentions last week? And, then didn’t they claim on Monday, that Roach would announce his intentions this week?
Although Roach’s name is on the ballot for the Republican primary, it probably would be a good idea for him to announce his intentions before voters start receiving absentee ballots.
Is Roach running a stealth campaign?
Comment by RJB — May 6, 2006 @ 2:20 pm
Why Brian Bilbray?
As the survey points out…reform was the rallying cry of the April 11th election. The message was clear, but the ,multiple candidates provided a mechanism of confusion for the voters.
Brian Bilbray recognizes this mandate.
Alphabetically speaking, I found myself seated between Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray many times. I hold both in high regard…That’s not just being polite…that is the simple fact. Each are honoroable people trying to make a difference in a sea of undue influence from all sides.
I am supporting Brian Bilbray as I believe he is personally dedicted to the most important issues of the day…
Immigration Reform
Border Integrity
Fiscal Responsibility
Brian (if elected) will enjoy the advantage of having his senority restored…NO OTHER CANDIDATE has that advantage. Hence, despite my desire to have an outsider revolution…pragmatically speaking Brian’s immigration credentials, prior fiscal report card backed by his senority advantage earns my vote and support.
This is not an anti-Busby position, it is a pro-Bilbray choice.
San Diego was blessed by having 18 good people presenting themselves as candidates willing to serve and advance the issues of a conservative district. Everyone was motivated from a pure heart,…but now it is time for a wise mind to trump the decision making.
Comment by Bill Boyer — May 6, 2006 @ 8:19 pm
Not released:
- The questions asked in the survey
- The responses to a specific question
- The crosstab details
- The survey population
Released:
A memo from a consultant to a member of the Roach campaign team
Does anyone buy this claim? How do we know the survey respondents were not 60 % Democrats?
Comment by the other DC guy — May 7, 2006 @ 10:52 pm
I’m not surprised by this poll at all. Busby got 43% of the vote in the primary. Yeah, she’s getting hammered, but that was to prevent the bleeding, not to draw votes away from her. The real key here is how many votes go Bilbray’s way. At 37%, it looks like many voters are still unsure about him. And that’s the real cause for concern — because if the Reps stay home, Bilbray loses.
Comment by Jim — May 8, 2006 @ 8:00 am
Roach has decided not to run, officially. It’s just been reported on the Flash Report. Fleishman responds with all of the emotion of a groupie who has just found out her favorite band broke up.
http://www.flashreport.org/blog.php
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 8, 2006 @ 5:04 pm
Mr Boyer, my concern is that Bilbray is just another “Good ol’ Boy” politician who is owned by lobbiests. What good is he going to do the voters of the 50th district if he already owes his allegience to big business. He is a career politician and he makes no bones about it. I understand that as a Republican you are trying to show solidarity by standing by the GOP nominated candidate, but is it really in the best intrests of the people? Don’t they deserve someone who will actually care about their concerns and the issues facing San Diego? Or is it that “he-with-the-most-money-deserves-to-win?”
Comment by Smart Democrat — May 8, 2006 @ 7:44 pm
Roach is out? Well, Bilbray can breathe a sigh of relief. As a lover of political theatre, I’m a bit disappointed. Watching Bilbray try to win two competitive races at once would have been fun.
On the other hand, I’m curious about how this will affect the race in November. If Busby wins in June, then does she win in November (and vice versa for Bilbray)? I tend to think so, because the national forces won’t keep funding the race. . .but on the other hand, the turnout will be different. Thoughts anyone?
Comment by Jim — May 8, 2006 @ 8:30 pm
I would think its possible for a Republican to lose in this extra-hyped special election and win in Novemeber, but very unlikely in reverse (in a district skewed so many points to the right).
In a district dominated by Republican/conservative voters, any votes Busby made in the other direction between June and November would be material for an ad, motivating those righty voters to get out on election day and get their seat back.
On the other hand, Busby losing in June would probably make her non-viable in November…unless some sort of unforseen event/scandal (local or national) shifts the scenario a great deal. Odds are a loss in June would signal the end of any national support for Busby and I suspect her fundraising from all sources would be greatly reduced. I think Busby’s opportunity to win ended with Roach’s withdrawl. Her only chance in June was Bilbrary fighting a war on two fronts, spliting the Republican base and reducing turnout.
I was kind of curious to see if Roach would try to emulate the Bustamante for Governor ads…”No on the Recall, Bustamante for Governor” — something like “Bilbray for June, Roach for the Future”, but I think he made the right choice stepping aside.
Comment by MP — May 8, 2006 @ 11:17 pm
Update: Mister “One million dollars for one percent”, Bill Hauf, claims he is going to actively campaign in the primary. But will anyone notice?
Update 2: Rahm Emmannuel, DCCC chair, says that Roach dropped out after a personal meeting with VP Cheney. Can anyone confirm?
This relates to the Flash report’s mourning that Bilbray won’t get any conservative supporters. But Issa, Packard, Hunter and Cheney all making personal appearances and raising $$ for him would seem a pretty hard-hitting bunch of conservative supporters in my book.
Comment by the other DC guy — May 9, 2006 @ 7:42 am
Actually, my sources tell me that Mr. Cheney was very warm and encouraging to Mr. Roach, and even offered to go quail hunting with him if he won the primary.
Comment by Nik — May 9, 2006 @ 6:00 pm
Do you have a link to that source, Nik?
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 9, 2006 @ 6:14 pm
If there was any doubt that the Kaloogian team was running this site, it’s surge of activity when Roach was following Kaloogian’s advice and considering continuing the campaign, followed by the sudden disappearance again when that effort ended, should answer the question.
Comment by the other DC guy — May 11, 2006 @ 6:04 am
Other DC Guy: This blogger hasn’t disappeared. I’m right here!
Comment by Administrator — May 11, 2006 @ 5:11 pm