Comments on: New GOP Survey Has Busby Beating Bilbray 43%-37% http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/ The dirt on San Diego politics. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:19:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1-alpha by: Administrator http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1220 Thu, 11 May 2006 17:11:50 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1220 Other DC Guy: This blogger hasn't disappeared. I'm right here! Other DC Guy: This blogger hasn’t disappeared. I’m right here!

]]> by: the other DC guy http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1217 Thu, 11 May 2006 06:04:24 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1217 If there was any doubt that the Kaloogian team was running this site, it's surge of activity when Roach was following Kaloogian's advice and considering continuing the campaign, followed by the sudden disappearance again when that effort ended, should answer the question. If there was any doubt that the Kaloogian team was running this site, it’s surge of activity when Roach was following Kaloogian’s advice and considering continuing the campaign, followed by the sudden disappearance again when that effort ended, should answer the question.

]]> by: Cross Tabs http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1199 Tue, 09 May 2006 18:14:57 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1199 Do you have a link to that source, Nik? ;) Do you have a link to that source, Nik? ;)

]]> by: Nik http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1198 Tue, 09 May 2006 18:00:36 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1198 Actually, my sources tell me that Mr. Cheney was very warm and encouraging to Mr. Roach, and even offered to go quail hunting with him if he won the primary. Actually, my sources tell me that Mr. Cheney was very warm and encouraging to Mr. Roach, and even offered to go quail hunting with him if he won the primary.

]]> by: the other DC guy http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1194 Tue, 09 May 2006 07:42:16 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1194 Update: Mister "One million dollars for one percent", Bill Hauf, claims he is going to actively campaign in the primary. But will anyone notice? Update 2: Rahm Emmannuel, DCCC chair, says that Roach dropped out after a personal meeting with VP Cheney. Can anyone confirm? This relates to the Flash report's mourning that Bilbray won't get any conservative supporters. But Issa, Packard, Hunter and Cheney all making personal appearances and raising $$ for him would seem a pretty hard-hitting bunch of conservative supporters in my book. Update: Mister “One million dollars for one percent”, Bill Hauf, claims he is going to actively campaign in the primary. But will anyone notice?

Update 2: Rahm Emmannuel, DCCC chair, says that Roach dropped out after a personal meeting with VP Cheney. Can anyone confirm?

This relates to the Flash report’s mourning that Bilbray won’t get any conservative supporters. But Issa, Packard, Hunter and Cheney all making personal appearances and raising $$ for him would seem a pretty hard-hitting bunch of conservative supporters in my book.

]]> by: MP http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1183 Mon, 08 May 2006 23:17:04 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1183 I would think its possible for a Republican to lose in this extra-hyped special election and win in Novemeber, but very unlikely in reverse (in a district skewed so many points to the right). In a district dominated by Republican/conservative voters, any votes Busby made in the other direction between June and November would be material for an ad, motivating those righty voters to get out on election day and get their seat back. On the other hand, Busby losing in June would probably make her non-viable in November...unless some sort of unforseen event/scandal (local or national) shifts the scenario a great deal. Odds are a loss in June would signal the end of any national support for Busby and I suspect her fundraising from all sources would be greatly reduced. I think Busby's opportunity to win ended with Roach's withdrawl. Her only chance in June was Bilbrary fighting a war on two fronts, spliting the Republican base and reducing turnout. I was kind of curious to see if Roach would try to emulate the Bustamante for Governor ads..."No on the Recall, Bustamante for Governor" -- something like "Bilbray for June, Roach for the Future", but I think he made the right choice stepping aside. I would think its possible for a Republican to lose in this extra-hyped special election and win in Novemeber, but very unlikely in reverse (in a district skewed so many points to the right).

In a district dominated by Republican/conservative voters, any votes Busby made in the other direction between June and November would be material for an ad, motivating those righty voters to get out on election day and get their seat back.

On the other hand, Busby losing in June would probably make her non-viable in November…unless some sort of unforseen event/scandal (local or national) shifts the scenario a great deal. Odds are a loss in June would signal the end of any national support for Busby and I suspect her fundraising from all sources would be greatly reduced. I think Busby’s opportunity to win ended with Roach’s withdrawl. Her only chance in June was Bilbrary fighting a war on two fronts, spliting the Republican base and reducing turnout.

I was kind of curious to see if Roach would try to emulate the Bustamante for Governor ads…”No on the Recall, Bustamante for Governor” — something like “Bilbray for June, Roach for the Future”, but I think he made the right choice stepping aside.

]]> by: Jim http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1182 Mon, 08 May 2006 20:30:26 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1182 Roach is out? Well, Bilbray can breathe a sigh of relief. As a lover of political theatre, I'm a bit disappointed. Watching Bilbray try to win two competitive races at once would have been fun. On the other hand, I'm curious about how this will affect the race in November. If Busby wins in June, then does she win in November (and vice versa for Bilbray)? I tend to think so, because the national forces won't keep funding the race. . .but on the other hand, the turnout will be different. Thoughts anyone? Roach is out? Well, Bilbray can breathe a sigh of relief. As a lover of political theatre, I’m a bit disappointed. Watching Bilbray try to win two competitive races at once would have been fun.

On the other hand, I’m curious about how this will affect the race in November. If Busby wins in June, then does she win in November (and vice versa for Bilbray)? I tend to think so, because the national forces won’t keep funding the race. . .but on the other hand, the turnout will be different. Thoughts anyone?

]]> by: Smart Democrat http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1180 Mon, 08 May 2006 19:44:24 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1180 Mr Boyer, my concern is that Bilbray is just another "Good ol' Boy" politician who is owned by lobbiests. What good is he going to do the voters of the 50th district if he already owes his allegience to big business. He is a career politician and he makes no bones about it. I understand that as a Republican you are trying to show solidarity by standing by the GOP nominated candidate, but is it really in the best intrests of the people? Don't they deserve someone who will actually care about their concerns and the issues facing San Diego? Or is it that "he-with-the-most-money-deserves-to-win?" Mr Boyer, my concern is that Bilbray is just another “Good ol’ Boy” politician who is owned by lobbiests. What good is he going to do the voters of the 50th district if he already owes his allegience to big business. He is a career politician and he makes no bones about it. I understand that as a Republican you are trying to show solidarity by standing by the GOP nominated candidate, but is it really in the best intrests of the people? Don’t they deserve someone who will actually care about their concerns and the issues facing San Diego? Or is it that “he-with-the-most-money-deserves-to-win?”

]]> by: Cross Tabs http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1176 Mon, 08 May 2006 17:04:12 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1176 Roach has decided not to run, officially. It's just been reported on the Flash Report. Fleishman responds with all of the emotion of a groupie who has just found out her favorite band broke up. http://www.flashreport.org/blog.php Roach has decided not to run, officially. It’s just been reported on the Flash Report. Fleishman responds with all of the emotion of a groupie who has just found out her favorite band broke up.

http://www.flashreport.org/blog.php

]]> by: Jim http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1165 Mon, 08 May 2006 08:00:31 +0100 http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/05/05/new-gop-survey-has-busby-beating-bilbray-43-37/#comment-1165 I'm not surprised by this poll at all. Busby got 43% of the vote in the primary. Yeah, she's getting hammered, but that was to prevent the bleeding, not to draw votes away from her. The real key here is how many votes go Bilbray's way. At 37%, it looks like many voters are still unsure about him. And that's the real cause for concern -- because if the Reps stay home, Bilbray loses. I’m not surprised by this poll at all. Busby got 43% of the vote in the primary. Yeah, she’s getting hammered, but that was to prevent the bleeding, not to draw votes away from her. The real key here is how many votes go Bilbray’s way. At 37%, it looks like many voters are still unsure about him. And that’s the real cause for concern — because if the Reps stay home, Bilbray loses.

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