In the 50th it’s all TIED up
The Swing State Project reports on a SurveyUSA/10News poll which shows Brian Bilbray and Francine Busby all tied with 45% of the vote each.
Swing State notes that Busby does better among Democrats than Bilbray does with Republicans. But most notably, Busby crushes Bilbray with Independent voters.
Among Dems, Busby is doing a terrific job - she holds them at a rate of 92-3. (Wow!) Meanwhile, Bilbray holds Republicans by 82-12. Of course, there are many more Republicans in this district, so Busby makes up the difference by obliterating Bilbray with indies, 54-19.
Admin - welcome back!
I noticed that the (heavily anti-Billbray) independent voters are over-counted in the survey at 18% (should probably be about 14%).
On the flip side, the automated survey failed to detect a bizzare response pattern: 26 % of independents said they would vote for “some other candidate”! It’s probably safe to assume that once they get to the voting booth these voters will prefer Busby over former incumbent and lobbyist Billbray.
Does anyone believe that those likely voters who “did not vote in 4/11 primary” are only 1% undecided?
Result of the first two counter-balancing errors: who knows. Result of all three: it’s one messed up survey.
Comment by the other DC guy — May 11, 2006 @ 6:07 pm
Survery USA are also the folks who were consistently overrating Busby in the primary. Their last poll had her pegged at 47% and she ended up getting 43.7. I take their results with a grain of salt. I disagree with your analysis of the “some other candidate” voters, though DC Guy. These are likely Republican leaners who voted for a different R who is not on the ballot. I would find it more likely they would break toward Bilbray in larger numbers than Busby, as their natural inclination is likely Republican.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 11, 2006 @ 6:13 pm
Let’s just all wait and see if Datamar comes out with a poll soon. They’ve nailed the last several races. I would love to see what they determine.
Comment by Meatball — May 11, 2006 @ 10:49 pm
Datamar wasn’t any closer. Their poll was way too Republican. They had 54% of poll respondents as Republican - they made up 48% of the electorate.
Datamar had Busby at 40%. Survey USA had Busby at 47%. Busby received 44%. SUSA was actually more accurate.
Also, Busby did receive 47% of the vote on election day - the absentee ballots brought her down to 44%. The SUSA poll that had Busby at 47% was only polling people who hadn’t voted yet - meaning election day voters. It was right on.
Comment by gil — May 11, 2006 @ 11:02 pm
If it was trying to predict outcome on election day only…then it was inherently flawed to begin with. Who cares what happens on election day when a huge portion of ballots ARE cast absentee? That’s like saying “Survey USA was actually a great poll, since it wasn’t really trying to predict the accurate outcome in the first place!” Um…ok!
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 11, 2006 @ 11:08 pm
And Survey USA was actually less accurate than Datamar. The Datamar Poll had her at 40.7. That is a difference of 3% even. Survey USA had her at 47%, which is a difference of 3.3%. I know that’s sort of splitting hairs…BUT all that to say, lets just stop saying survey USA was more accurate than Datamar…because it wasn’t.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 12, 2006 @ 3:30 pm
Survey USA was more accurate.
whoops….was I supposed to not say that.
Comment by gil — May 12, 2006 @ 7:38 pm
Does anyone here believe that independent voters will be much more likely to break for Busby over Bilbray because of the NSA wiretapping story that’s breaking this week?
This is exactly the kind of flagrant disregard for the rule of law, expansion of government and executive power, invasion of privacy, and move toward a big-brother police state that libertarians and pro-privacy, small-government conservatives get outraged about.
And it all happened on the watch of a Republican House and Senate. I don’t know if the message will get out in time to help Busby in the runoff, but the general public will definitely be made aware that all of this has been allowed to happen under a rubber-stamp Republican congress that refuses to hold Bush accountable.
Bush is at 29% in some polls. The lowest of his presidency. And Congressional Republicans, by their own party’s admission, are “Brand W Republicans”.
Voting for any Republican will only serve to provide more support and cover for Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et. al.
Plus, back on the corruption front, Rove may be indicted between now and the June run-off. Two of the top three people in the CIA have resigned unexpectedly. One of them had their house raided by the FBI this morning, linking him with the growing Duke Cunningham bribery scandal.
Gov. Ernie Fletcher was indicted on 3 counts. Tom Noe wants to change his not-guity plea. The Cunningham investigation now has the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands, CA) under investigation.
The local papers (UT and NC Times) are better than most national papers on these stories because they’re all tied to our buddy Duke, so people who actually read the paper here in San Diego have a better idea than most about the growing corruption scandal that’s uniquely Republican in nature.
Should be an interesting year.
Comment by Nik — May 12, 2006 @ 8:00 pm
You can say it Gil. You would just be wrong.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 12, 2006 @ 8:01 pm
I’m ok with that. I’ve become a firm believer in the Bush/NRCC model - the facts don’t actually matter. Plus, I’ve been wrong before. I was certainly wrong when I stated that Republicans were smarter than to make Bilbray their candidate for the runoff.
I hear Hauf is in for sure. What a friggin circus
Lastly - Survey USA was very accurate. The most accurate. Dead on. Pinpoint accuracey.
Comment by gil — May 12, 2006 @ 8:23 pm
And….they missed it by 3.3 and Datmar missed it by 3….gosh darn those pesky facts.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 12, 2006 @ 10:20 pm
Survey USA was right (of course they weren’t, but why should gil get all the fun?).
Nik,
Actually the biggest indictment coming up is Congressman William Jefferson. His chief of staff already did a plea deal with prosecutors, and a search warrante on the Congressman’s home found bundles of cash stored in his freezer.
The problem? Jefferson’s a Democrat.
The Lewis thing will blow away — though it may snag former Congressman Lowrey.
And San Diegans recognize our own specialization in corruption.
It’s been quite a year. But for the Democrats to own the corruption issue they have to stop using government computers for their own personal and campaign uses (whoops! for Ms. Busby).
Comment by the other DC guy — May 12, 2006 @ 11:25 pm
> Lastly - Survey USA was very accurate. The most
> accurate. Dead on. Pinpoint accuracey.
> And….they missed it by 3.3 and Datmar missed it
> by 3….gosh darn those pesky facts.
“WMD intelligence is a slam dunk” Tenet gets a Medal of Freedom, Micheal Brown did a heck of a job, “we’ll be greeted as liberators” Cheney and “days or weeks rather than months” Rumsfeld haven’t been fired…
Heck, gil should be able to get away with saying they are the most accurate surveyer in the world, more accurate than actual elections even.
Comment by yeah right — May 13, 2006 @ 5:03 am
Typical. A liberal loses an argument on polling in a local election…and all of the sudden starts talking about WMD. You guys just can’t help yourselves.
Comment by DC Guy — May 13, 2006 @ 4:48 pm
Dude lighten up, it was a joking way of conceding that gil was wrong. ie it was comparing gil to Tenet, Brown, Cheney, etc. Let me spell it out in even simpler terms…I was taking your side!
Comment by yeah right — May 13, 2006 @ 6:13 pm
Survey USA has conducted the most accurate polls in this race.
Comment by gil — May 13, 2006 @ 7:08 pm
…except for the one Datamar did.
Comment by DC Guy — May 13, 2006 @ 10:32 pm
DC Guy -
Survey USA has had the most accurate polling data by far. If you want, I can provide a link to an article in the North County Observer (my paper) backing this up. If it’s in the press, it has to be true. I can check the CA News and Review too.
Comment by gil — May 13, 2006 @ 11:21 pm
Other DC Guy: William Jefferson is going down, but that’s not by any stretch of the imagination the “biggest indictment” coming up.
William Jefferson is one guy. Democrats (and yes, including Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean) have publically supported an investigation into Congressman Jefferson. Stark contrast indeed — especially to our good ol’ Duke right here at home!
So let’s recap: Democrats are dealing with one congressman who’s about to be indicted, plus some of his staffers who have already pled guilty to charges.
Republicans have:
One of the most powerful lobbyists having pled guilty on two different charges — already sentenced for one in Florida, and one still waiting in DC. Jack Abramoff gave money exclusively to Republicans. Anyone who says that the Abramoff scandal is bipartisan is lying. So far the guilty include Jack Abramoff, Adam Kidan, Michael Scanlon.
The indicted include David Safavian, a high-ranking White House official until he resigned just before being arrested.
Several high-ranking party officials under investigation, including many Bush/Cheney area campaign chairmen, indicted, or pled guilty for fraud and corruption in regards to illegal voter suppression tactics and laundering money to funnel into Republican campaigns. These party officials include:
Tom Noe of Ohio’s “Coingate” scandal, is facing 53 felony counts of corruption and theft. Just announced that he’s changing his plea of Not Guilty.
James Tobin, New England Regional Political Director for the Republican National Committee and Northeast political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), convicted of two counts in an ongoing investigation. He will be sentenced in a few days.
Republican Congressmen under investigation, indicted, or convicted include:
Rep. DeLay (R-TX) (Fmr House Leader)
Rep. Lewis (R-CA) (Chair, Appropriations Cmte)
Rep. Doolittle (R-CA)
Rep. Ney (R-OH)
Rep. Cunningham (R-right here, baby!)
Several other “unnamed co-conspirators” still under investigation and yet-to-be-indicted.
The director of the CIA, Porter Goss (former Republican Congressman) and his #3 guy, “Dusty” Foggo, suddenly resigning their high-ranking positions without any prior notice. Goss is implicated in the growing Cunningham bribery scandal. Foggo’s house was just raided yesterday by the feds as a part of this investigation. (San Diego natives!)
Another high-ranking White House official, Claude Allen, appointed by Bush to be the #2 guy at the Dept. of Health and Human Services, was arrested last month for theft.
Brian J. Doyle, deputy press secretary at the Dept of Homeland Security, was recently arrested for Soliciting a Minor.
And in state office, Kentucky Governer Ernie Fletcher issued a blanket pardon to everyone on his staff, including “anyone else who might be accused by the grand jury of violating any section of the penal code”, for corruption and discrimination. Fletcher was just indicted on three counts a couple days ago.
Also, the Valerie Wilson/Plame investigation is still going on. Scooter Libby was the Vice President’s chief of staff when he was indicted on five counts. Karl Rove, the President’s chief of staff until very recently, just testified before the grand jury for a fifth time about his role in leaking classified information and outing a covert CIA operative.
And THOSE are just the ones off the top of my head.
I think it’s fair to say that of ANY of the upcoming indictments, the “biggest” will be Karl Rove.
Ball’s in your court.
Comment by Nik — May 14, 2006 @ 6:10 am
Nik did you see this in the U-T today?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060514/news_mz1e14sabato.html
“The ‘culture of corruption’ is bipartisan” by Larry J. Sabato. Uugggghhhh…the stupidest thing I’ve read in quite a while. (and I check in on FreeRepublic and FlashReport from time to time)
> Yet as Kennedy flew to the Mayo Clinic for yet more drug
> dependency treatment, he took Democrats’ hopes of running
> against the Republican “culture of corruption” with him.
I don’t even know where to begin. Health-related/personal problem vs. using your elected office to hand billions of taxpayer dollars to your friends/bribers? One guy vs. the fundamental modus operandi of the Republican Party’s rule? Unbelievable. Well, it is good to know that the GOP doesn’t have any actual arguments left to make, if they’re resorting to this nonsense.
Comment by yeah right — May 15, 2006 @ 7:25 am
Larry Sabato is a Democrat. Just an FYI.
Comment by Cross Tabs — May 15, 2006 @ 3:07 pm
Rep. McKinney punched a cop — if that’s not an expression of corruption of power I don’t know what it. And her “bodyguard” impersonated a police officer - a felony.
Rep. Kennedy crashed his car while under the influence (of either drugs or alcohol - does it matter which?) and used his political power to get favorable treatment from the cops.
The number doesn’t have to be even — is the best message for Democrats “Democrats support fewer indicted felons than Republicans”?
Comment by the other DC guy — May 15, 2006 @ 4:22 pm
Be careful of what you’re saying there. “Democrats support”?? Are you sure about that?
Did you see the DCCC contribute to McKinney’s legal defense fund? Did you see any elected members of the Democratic leadership publically announce support for McKinney after the event? Or did you (like me) see them back away from her on the subject? Did you (like me) see Nancy Pelosi say that she found it “it hard to see any set of facts that would justify striking a police officer”?
Now, I’m not defending Rep. McKinney, but you really think that getting angry and punching a cop who she says was harassing her because she was black is on par with bilking millions of dollars of tax payer money for hookers, limousines, rolls royces, golfing at St. Andrews, corporate jets, etc…?
You really think that someone with a substance abuse problem is “corrupt”, or that the Democratic Party is supportive of Rep. Kennedy’s actions?
Comment by Nik — May 15, 2006 @ 8:16 pm
And to touch on the Larry Sabato article — the point was basically that since a Kennedy was involved with a DUI accident and the cops let him off, he handed the Republicans a flag that they could wave around to say “see?? We’re not the only ones corrupt here!”.
I don’t think for a moment that Larry Sabato was trying to equate corruption by democrats to corruption by republicans. Quite the contrary — he was just saying that any Kennedy is a policital “celebrity” because of the notoriety of the name and it’s association with the Democratic Party, and that Republicans can use this to their advantage by trying to deflect much more poignant charges of systemic Republican-specific corruption in Congress.
And FWIW — I forgot to mention a few more names in my previous email. As Larry Sabato mentioned — Gov Taft of Ohio. Should’ve mentioned him when I mentioned Tom Noe and Rep Ney. I should probably add Ken Blackwell to the list, too.
And did we all forget about Fmr Gov George Ryan (R-IL) and GOP lobbyist Larry Warner being convicted on all counts of racketeering, conspiracy, mail fraud, tax fraud, and lying to the FBI? That was less than a month ago!
But but but but… CYNTHIA MCKINNEY PUNCHED A COP!!!
Comment by Nik — May 15, 2006 @ 8:30 pm
If you can get a voter to pay attention long enough to read all that, your point will come across.
Good luck!
My point is simply that this is not a silver bullet and Dem’s will have a tough time using it — for example Busby’s use of government computers for her campaign does not compare in scale or importance to any possible Bilbray-Abramoff ties, but in the campaign mailers both are effective and neither can claim to be angels. And that situation plays out at a national level too.
Comment by the other DC guy — May 15, 2006 @ 8:40 pm
> but in the campaign mailers both are effective and neither
> can claim to be angels. And that situation plays out at a
> national level too.
Only because the media has an obsession with appearing “balanced” so they will give equal time to 1 or 2 extremely minor Democrat scandals and the dozens of enormous billion-dollar-taxpayer-money plus hookers plus yachts plus disenfranchisement plus felonies Republican scandals. Then, yeah, the full weight of the corruption will not weigh in. Voters will not realize the contrast between a very few scattered corrupt incidents (Democrats) and the very rules of engagement that are inherently corrupt (Republicans).
Can we please, please PLEEEEEAAAASE never hear ever again from any whiny Republican that the media has a liberal bias? Do you all have any idea how many elections they’ve won for you when they go out of their way to appear balanced by making two things that are completely unequal seem equal? The mainstream media is the best friend the GOP has ever had.
Comment by yeah right — May 15, 2006 @ 9:49 pm
yeah right: I actually agree with other DC Guy’s point — that for misleading campaign mailers and such, anything to deflect criticism is a Good Thing.
He keeps bringing up Busby’s use of “government machines” even though I doubt he could actually describe the offense in any sort of detail that suggests he knows what he’s talking about.
But that’s the point exactly — he probably got the story from a campaign mailer and a couple blog posts, but that’s good enough for him to use the story as a deflection against the GOP-specific “culture of corruption”.
I strongly DISagree, though, that voters are unable, or incapable, or unwilling to actually make a comparison.
All it takes is a simple (admittedly nasty) mailer that says, “If government corruption is bipartisan, then how come ONLY REPUBLICANS used your tax dollars on prostitutes, Scottish golf trips, Rolls Royces, mansions, and antique furniture?”
Now, I’m not a political campaign consultant. I’m just an angry citizen without any ties to either political party.
People like Other DC Guy are like hard-core sports fans. They’re in it for their team, regardless of the situation. And they’d rather ignore and deflect and justify and rationalize the most widespread corruption, invasion of privacy, illegal activity, and abuse of power in US HISTORY because they’d rather put up with it so long as their team wins.
It’s shameful.
Comment by Nik — May 15, 2006 @ 10:21 pm
While on the topic of corruption, I’d like to be the first to throw some mud at Rep Mollohan (D-WV) for the growing cloud around him. If early reports are to be believed, then this guy needs to go.
Comment by Nik — May 16, 2006 @ 4:20 pm
There is a new poll from Live Journal that gives Busby a 47% to 40% lead.
Comment by KnightErrant — May 17, 2006 @ 11:09 pm
James Tobin (who I mentioned a couple comments above) was sentenced to 10 months in prison and 2 years probation, was fined $10,000 today.
Comment by Nik — May 18, 2006 @ 12:41 am